For those of you that were dismayed when my post was absent from your Thursday morning last week, I apologize. I was on a much needed vacation.
But now I'm back and so are the weekly posts.
This week, most of the teams in the NFL are starting their offseason workout programs. The Bengals won't start until some time next week, but I figured now is as good as ever to make a realistic prediction for the Bengal's 2007 season.
As far as anyone is concerned, the 2006 season was a failure. It was full of the highest highs that were replaced quickly by the lowest lows. The lowest was the second half meltdown against the Chargers that all of Bengaldom shall remember for years. After looking at '06, I came to realize that if the Bengals would have closed the deal on many of the close games they were involved in instead of giving up, their record would have been 13-3. The Steelers, Falcons, Chargers, Buccaneers, and Broncos games were all within the Bengals grasp but the victory managed to elude them. Bengals fans are familiar with this sort of occurrence because it happens so often that it is commonplace for fans to leave Paul Brown Stadium feeling broken hearted after being filled with such hope. These lapses have some, particularly me, believing that if they continue, Marvin Lewis may be out of a job. Especially if the Bengals don't make the playoffs.
If you examine all the elite teams from 2006, you realize that they all came together in the second half to win ball games. No one proves my point other than the Chargers on that infamous November 12th afternoon or the Colts against New England in the AFC Championship. The Bengals will never be a championship team, like the Colts, until they can win in the clutch on a consistent basis. Sure they had their share of clutch plays in '06, like the 4th and 1 pass that found itself in Chad Johnson's arms 32 yards down field for the conversion. However, fewer instances come to mind when you apply the clutch to the defense. Its that simple, the defense does not make plays on a consistent basis. Does it have the potential? Yes, but it will have to find an individual to give it an attitude, particularly a middle linebacker.
Lets say that the draft is defense heavy in the first two rounds and there are no major injuries to speak of, I estimate the Bengals record will be somewhere in the area of 10-6. Keep in mind this is a very early prediction and I will update my prediction as the offseason continues.
I think that 2007 will see Carson Palmer's number climb because he won't be coming off of a major knee surgery and because Levi Jones is returning to guard his left side. Many of the injured wide receivers will be returning that will be crucial in special teams and replacing Chris Henry during his eventual suspension (everyone knows its coming). Hopefully Rudi Johnson will have someone to step in and let him take a series off every now and then. That will help his stats improve drastically.
The defensive picture is so blurry that it is hard to foretell how successful they will be in '07. I think that the talent is there but the heart and desire is not. If Marvin Lewis can bring out that talent, the defense would be scary.
2007 is a pivotal year in Bengals history because if a talented team such as this fails to make the playoffs, I believe Marvin may be looking elsewhere for work. If you don't agree with me, just ask Marty Schottenheimer. He guided the Chargers to a league best 14-2 record and then lost his job because of a 1 and done playoff run. Marvin has had 5 years to make a contender in Cincinnati and he has done that but he has not taken the team to the next level, making the playoffs on a consistent basis and having playoff success.
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