Black (and Orange) Monday

September 10th, 2007 will mark the start of the Bengals 40th season. What better way to celebrate than with the Bengals' first home monday night game since 2004 and the first night opener since the Bengals' first ever game, a 29-13 defeat by the San Diego Chargers on September 6, 1968. Thats right, the Bengals are featured in one of the doubleheader Monday Night Football games and their opponent is none other than the 2006 AFC North defending champions, the Baltimore Ravens.

It would be great to start the season 1-0 in overall record and division record, but the problem is the Bengals might not be at full strength. Chris Henry will miss this game because of a definite suspension to be handed out soon and Jonathan Joseph will possibly be riding the bench. Marvin Lewis has not ruled out sitting him down because of his run in with the law on January 22nd. Henry and Joseph are major cogs in the Bengals scheme and missing them would hurt. Especially because the last time the Bengals and Ravens met Jonathan Joseph had 4 pass breakups (that should have been interceptions) and could have been cosidered the MVP of the game.

It has been argued that the Bengals' off the field issues haven't affected their play, but if their key players can't suit up it definitely affects things. I am now convinced that Henry is a cancer because of his latest traffic violations. It shows me that he has made no progress and he should not remain with the team, no matter how talented he is. The rest of the team needs to put the team first and win some games. I'd like nothing more than to see the black and blue Ravens leaving Cincinnati with their tail feathers between their legs.

Can the Bengals Get Out of the 8-8 Rut?

For those of you that were dismayed when my post was absent from your Thursday morning last week, I apologize. I was on a much needed vacation.

But now I'm back and so are the weekly posts.

This week, most of the teams in the NFL are starting their offseason workout programs. The Bengals won't start until some time next week, but I figured now is as good as ever to make a realistic prediction for the Bengal's 2007 season.

As far as anyone is concerned, the 2006 season was a failure. It was full of the highest highs that were replaced quickly by the lowest lows. The lowest was the second half meltdown against the Chargers that all of Bengaldom shall remember for years. After looking at '06, I came to realize that if the Bengals would have closed the deal on many of the close games they were involved in instead of giving up, their record would have been 13-3. The Steelers, Falcons, Chargers, Buccaneers, and Broncos games were all within the Bengals grasp but the victory managed to elude them. Bengals fans are familiar with this sort of occurrence because it happens so often that it is commonplace for fans to leave Paul Brown Stadium feeling broken hearted after being filled with such hope. These lapses have some, particularly me, believing that if they continue, Marvin Lewis may be out of a job. Especially if the Bengals don't make the playoffs.

If you examine all the elite teams from 2006, you realize that they all came together in the second half to win ball games. No one proves my point other than the Chargers on that infamous November 12th afternoon or the Colts against New England in the AFC Championship. The Bengals will never be a championship team, like the Colts, until they can win in the clutch on a consistent basis. Sure they had their share of clutch plays in '06, like the 4th and 1 pass that found itself in Chad Johnson's arms 32 yards down field for the conversion. However, fewer instances come to mind when you apply the clutch to the defense. Its that simple, the defense does not make plays on a consistent basis. Does it have the potential? Yes, but it will have to find an individual to give it an attitude, particularly a middle linebacker.

Lets say that the draft is defense heavy in the first two rounds and there are no major injuries to speak of, I estimate the Bengals record will be somewhere in the area of 10-6. Keep in mind this is a very early prediction and I will update my prediction as the offseason continues.

I think that 2007 will see Carson Palmer's number climb because he won't be coming off of a major knee surgery and because Levi Jones is returning to guard his left side. Many of the injured wide receivers will be returning that will be crucial in special teams and replacing Chris Henry during his eventual suspension (everyone knows its coming). Hopefully Rudi Johnson will have someone to step in and let him take a series off every now and then. That will help his stats improve drastically.

The defensive picture is so blurry that it is hard to foretell how successful they will be in '07. I think that the talent is there but the heart and desire is not. If Marvin Lewis can bring out that talent, the defense would be scary.

2007 is a pivotal year in Bengals history because if a talented team such as this fails to make the playoffs, I believe Marvin may be looking elsewhere for work. If you don't agree with me, just ask Marty Schottenheimer. He guided the Chargers to a league best 14-2 record and then lost his job because of a 1 and done playoff run. Marvin has had 5 years to make a contender in Cincinnati and he has done that but he has not taken the team to the next level, making the playoffs on a consistent basis and having playoff success.

Why the Return of Reggie Kelly is a Good Thing.

For all you advocates for a new tight end, this is for you. You know who you are. You are more interested in watching the combine for Greg Olsen than Leon Hall. You were heart broken when Leonard Pope, Marcedes Lewis, and Dominique Byrd slipped through the Bengal's grasp in last spring's draft. You were hoping and praying that the Bengals would finally find a pass catching tight end that would stretch the field and create mis-matches on linebackers.

I'm sure a lot of you that play EA Sport's Madden Football series draft or trade for a tight end when you play as the Bengals in franchise mode. So do I. It helps in the video game. However, when the Bengals suit up to play on sundays, they are not powering up the XBOX 360s, they line up for real. Therefore they have to use an offense that takes advantages of the weapons they already have. It is very unique because it features three ultra talented wide recievers. No other team in the NFL has the reciever corps. that Cincinnati does. None. Why not feature them most of the time in three reciever sets? Offensive Coordinator Bob Bratkowski does just that. He understand that any tight end is going to be the fourth progression for quarterback Carson Palmer. First is Chad Johnson of course, then follows T.j. Houshmandzadeh, then comes Chris Henry.

Why does Chris Henry come before a tight end? Chris Henry is 6' 4", fast, can jump over any corner in the league, and he scores a touchdown every third time he touches the ball. He functions as a vertical weapon that can be lined up in the slot or outside and do the same thing as a pass catching tight end would do. This means that since you have a deep threat in Chad, a chain moving T.j., and a vertical target in Chris Henry, you don't need a tight end for anything except to block. Which is why I'm glad that Daniel Graham, Jerramy Stevens, and Eric Johnson did not come to Cincinnati. Reggie Kelly is a great blocker and his prowess is key to the success of Cincinnati's offense. He serves as a 6th offensive lineman on running and passing downs, creating holes for Rudi Johnson and extra time for Carson to drop back and throw.

Re-signing Reggie Kelly not only means the character left in the locker room is staying, but it means that the high powered Bengals offense also stays. No pass catching tight end will ever be able to create the miss matches like Chris Henry can. That is why you will never see a Antonio Gates or Ben Watson in Cincinnati. Cincy's tight ends block. Let the arguments cease.

Combine Wrap Up and Major Shakeups

The 2007 NFL combine is in the books at last and now it is full speed ahead to April's draft. It was an exciting and memorable six days. If you tuned in on NFL network you were rewarded with seeing a 6' 5" 239 lb monster that is Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson run a freakishly fast 4.35 forty yard dash with a borrowed pair of shoes. If you tuned in longer you watched Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn's stock disappear like Britney Spear's hair. Seriously, what was she thinking? Anyway, the combine answered a lot of questions about how the draft will play out and maybe I can shed some light on the other picks the Bengals have after the 18th overall pick.

First of all, the group that surprised me the most beyond a shadow of a doubt is the defensive backs. They must have been born in the back of a '69 Chevelle while going 95 miles per hour down the freeway because they arrived at the combine saying "I wanna go fast." I'm sure Ricky Bobby would be proud. I expected the 40 times to slow for this years crop of cornerbacks, especially because the projected top corner, Leon Hall, was supposed to run between a 4.45 and 4.5. Instead Hall ran a 4.39 and cemented himself as a lock for the first round a showed he has the ability to excel in the NFL. Times were fast across the board with 8 defensive backs running under 4.4. Saftey LaRon Landry's 4.35 elevated him into the top ten so Bengal's fans can say good bye to the possibility of drafting that L.S.U. Tiger.

However a recent development out of Cincinnati changes everything significantly. Linebacker Brian Simmons was cut by the team earlier today in a move that came about strictly for cap space. Simmons' salary did not match his declining production as of late and something had to be done. How can one linebacker change the entire out-look on the offseason? It enough for me to take everything I said about the inactive free agency and a fore sure cornerback selection in the first round and throw it out the window. Now the Bengal's telephone wire will be buzzing with offers to free agents because of the increase in cap space and the possibility of Reggie Kelly, Kenny Watson, and Kevin Kaesviharn's deals not being done by the start of free agency.

This also means the first round draft pick is a toss up between a linebacker and a cornerback. Simmons departure means the next middle linebacker on the depth chart is Ahmad Brooks, a second year player. I'm not so sure if Brooks is ready to handle that responsibility just yet and I think the Bengals might feel the same way. Patrick Willis from Ole Miss is the best middle linebacker available in the draft and if he is there at 18, the Bengals will seriously consider it. However, the cornerbacks looked so strong at the combine that the linebacker pick may have to wait until the second round. Then the Bengals will hope that someone hasn't taken the fiery H.B. Blades from Pittsburgh off the board. Blades is the best linebacker name I've heard in a long time and his play matches it, fast and ferocious. Either way I think the first two picks are linebacker/cornerback for sure. I don't think the Bengals can afford to pick any other position.

Since the Bengals lack a third round pick, the next Bengals selection will occur on the second day of the draft in the 4th round. Another combine standout may last until then, but his performance this weekend may have him sneaking into the third round. That guy is Arizona running back Chris Henry (Not the wide receiver). The kid weighs 230 pounds and tied Adrian Peterson with a 4.4 forty. That is amazing for anyone that weighs that much. Chris Perry's injuries and the possibility of Kenny Watson not returning begs for a running back at this spot. I hope that Henry is there but if he isn't the Bengals might be interested in Cincinnati native Deshawn Wynn from Florida.

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm really started to get excited about all of the recent activity in the NFL. It is definitely an interesting time to be a Bengals fan.

Fasten Your Seatbelts and Buckle Your Chinstraps, The Combine is Here

Get ready, the much anticipated NFL scouting combine is here. Anticipation has been mounting over the past few weeks and it is finally time poke, prod, measure, time, and evaluate all the top draft picks in Indianapolis. A player's stock can rise or fall as unpredictably as the tides, but one thing you can count on this weekend is that the results will bring the draft picture into focus. We will know who is first round talent or a 7th round hopeful and who might be available at the important 18th pick in the draft. The Bengals will have their eyes on several players with a lot to prove this weekend. Who's showing at the combine will determine the Bengals selection? Lets take a look in the latest draft day profile.

Lets be honest, is there any possibility that the Bengals don't pick someone on defense? The Bengals '06 defensive unit was tied for bottom in the league in scoring and pass defense. Therefore a major overhaul is in need. So what has to happen for improvement in '07?

First of all, it starts up front with the defensive line. Recently, ends Justin Smith and Robert Geathers were locked in for 2007. Therefore, I don't think the Bengals will be partaking of the deep class of defensive ends in this year's draft. Sam Adams and John Thornton are getting up there in terms of age so there is a need to infuse some young talent at tackle. Look for the 19 year old Louisville tackle Amobi Okoye to get the most attention from the Cincinnati brass this weekend for a lot of reasons. Obviously he has a lot of tread on the tires being only nineteen and he has the smarts to graduate that fast. At 317 pounds, he has the size to plug up the middle against the run and he has the strength and speed to rush the quarterback.

David Pollack's possible career ending injury has left a hole in the hearts of all Bengals fans as well as a hole in the depth chart. I hope he has the ability to make a comeback and suit up as number 99 again, but I don't want him to end up in a wheel chair the rest of his life if he came back. This, along with Brian Simmon's age, garners the possibility of a linebacker selection at 18. I think there is only one linebacker that fits the bill for this team. He is physically gifted, a leader, and can be a dominant linebacker for a decade. He is simply known as the "Poz" at Penn State, but you may know him as Paul Posluszny. At the "Linebacker U" that is Penn State, Posluszny developed into such a play maker at outside linebacker that Penn State alumnus and Hall of Fame linebacker Jack Ham called him, "the best linebacker to ever play at Penn State." Consider him in the mold of A.J. Hawk in his instincts and nose for the ball and his stats and awards back it up. He is the winner of the Butkus award in 2005 and a two time winner of the Bednarik award for best linebacker and best defensemen, respectively.

A lot of questions circle the secondary this off season, questions that need to be answered. Who will take Tory Jame's starting spot? Will Deltha O'Neal be on the team in week one? If so, then will he return to his 2005 pro-bowl form? Will Madieu Williams stay at safety or will he make the transition to corner? Number 18 could be used to settle some of those questions with the corners available. All though this year's corner class isn't as strong as last year's class, there is a possibility for the Bengals to find a Jonathan Joseph clone. Michigan's Leon Hall and Pitt's Darrelle Revis are considered the cream of this year's crop, but they need to have strong showings at the combine to be considered. Hall's stock fell after mediocre wide receivers burned him all day at the senior bowl. A fast 40 time would fix that real quick but I don't see him breaking 4.45. Revis needs to show that his punt return against West Virginia in 2006 wasn't a fluke and that he can cover the big time receivers in the NFL. If Madieu Williams makes the switch to corner, a safety would be needed to fill his spot. The Bengals want a dominant, hard hitting safety that changes the game when he is in the lineup. Florida's Reggie Nelson or L.S.U.'s LaRon Landry could become a player like Bob Sanders or Ed Reed for the secondary.

Playing Tag

It looks like the Bengals are getting ready to play tag this offseason, franchise tag that is. With so many key players slated to become free agents in a few weeks, the front office is preparing to roll out the tag for one player to guarantee a one year tender for that player. The front runner for it looks to be Justin Smith, edging out starting guard Eric Steinbach.

Should the Bengals decide to slap the tag on Smith, it will greatly effect the way the offseason plays out for the team for many reasons. The tag would cost the Bengals 8.6 million for one year, the average for the top five defensive ends in the league. This means that the team would have less than ten million in cap room and with the necessity for signing draft picks, it leaves them without the space for a big name free agent like Asante Samuel or Adalius Thomas.

Should Smith not be tagged, the team will be forced to look for a replacement in the first round of the draft. However, with Smith tagged for '07, the draft board changes dramatically. It would give the Bengals the ability to draft the best defensive player available instead of being limited to picking an end that might not be worth the pick. Picking the best player available is very important this year because the Bengals are without a third round pick due to the Ahmad Brooks supplemental draft selection.

Tagging Smith makes a lot of sense to me because even though he has never been the home run hitter on defense, he has always been solid in pass rush and run defense. Even though a big free agent would help, it would not help as much in the long run as building through the draft. A guy like Paul Posluszny could be the staple of the linebacker corps in Cincinnati for a decade and he might be available at 18. Without Smith tagged, the proclaimed "best linebacker ever to play at Penn State" would have to slide right by the Bengals because of the need for an end.

Manning, Colts give Bengals Something to Aim For

While watching the game in the dorm, I had to endure the Colts and Bears faithful screaming up and down the halls at every big play. Part of me was jealous because I haven't been able to watch the Bengals in the Super Bowl since I was one year old. I wanted the opportunity to see my team in the biggest game on the biggest stage of all. Some Bengals fans will resent their neighbor to the west for winning the most coveted trophy in all of sports, but something good did come from the game last night for Cincinnati. It shed light on the path to the Super Bowl and how to do it.

Consider this: The Colts have an All-Pro Quarterback, two Pro-Bowl receivers, a solid running game, a veteran offensive line, and a defense that just two years ago was surrendering 370.6 yards per game. Sound familiar? It should, its the Bengals of 2006.

The Bengals have an All-Pro Quarterback, one Pro-Bowl receiver, one receiver that should be, a Pro-Bowl running back, a veteran offensive line, and a defense that allowed 355.1 yards per game this year.

What has made the Colts champions two years later? It has to come down to two things: the concept of team first and a defense that plays solid and won't lose the game for you.

Tony Dungy and Bill Polian, the Colts president, worked together to build a defense full of talented players with the intention of propelling them into the NFL title game along with the already established offense. Players like Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis were all on that defensive unit in 2004 that allowed 370.6 yards per game, but all of these players headline their defense that shut down Larry Johnson, Steve McNair, the New England running backs, and the entire Chicago offense. I guess this shows you what two years of playing with the same guys will do. The defense simply needed time to gel and learn each other's tendencies so they could compliment each other and the desire to perform up to their potential for their teammates.

Tony Dungy convinced his players to play as a team instead of individuals. This isn't just limited to the defense. Peyton Manning didn't need to have the ball in his hands on every play to prove himself. He gladly handed it off to Joseph Addai or Dominic Rhodes and watched them tear up the Bears for 190 yards on the ground. Both of his receivers don't complain for the ball because they understand that they can't have it all the time. To every member of the roster, the Super Bowl wasn't the Peyton Manning show or the Joseph Addai show, it was the Colts show.

The Bengals envy the Colts because they are where the Bengals want to be. They are what the Bengals want to become. Maybe it clicked for some of the Bengals as they were watching the game last night, realizing that is what it takes to hold up the Lombardi trophy. The Bengals are where the Colts were, now they have to take the next step and follow their lead. The Super Bowl is not that far off for Cincinnati, can you feel it yet?